Analyzing Gas Price Fluctuations During Election Years

As the 2024 election season gets underway, inflation is anticipated to remain a heated topic. The cost of gas has frequently been a key issue in the most recent elections.

The impact of rising gas costs on voters may be greater than that of any political program, according to Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at The PRICE Futures Group. 

The typical weekly price for a gallon of gasoline during President George W. Bush’s first term in office was $1.59. The cost of a recent presidential term is lowest at that point. 

Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate in the 2002 midterm elections. After President Bush was re-elected in 2004, they increased even further.

According to Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, “there is a really strong inverse relationship between pump prices and approval ratings at a presidential level, and it hasn’t changed in four decades.”

During President Bush’s second term, prices increased and became more erratic. The typical cost was $2.77. 

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Political Consequences Of Gas Price Changes During Obama’s First Term

In July 2008, prices soared to a weekly high of $4.17. On November 7th, the price had decreased to $2.46. 

The Republican Party didn’t benefit much from the dramatic decline. Barack Obama won the presidency and Democrats gained seats in the House and Senate.

The American Petroleum Institute claims that during President Obama’s administration, the amount of oil produced on public lands drastically decreased.

During President Obama’s first term, the typical gas price was $3.12. Prices increased after Republicans gained more than 60 seats in the house during the 2010 midterm elections. 

The highest average gallon price for any year during Obama’s presidency occurred in 2012, two years later. 

The cost of goods decreased by roughly 40 cents in the two months before election day. As President Obama was re-elected, Republicans lost two senate seats and eight house seats.

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